Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Coal prices are starting to stretch after collapsing. The price increase was supported by increasing demand from Asia.
Referring to Refinitiv, the ICE Newcastle coal price for the December contract closed at US $ 127.25 per ton or up 3.25% on Wednesday trading (8/11/2023).
This strengthening is good news after coal prices collapsed and touched the lowest level in 28 months or since June 16, 2021 on Monday (6/11/2023) at US$ 122.25 per ton.
Coal prices strengthened as western Europe’s imported coal inventories have been further depleted to the lowest level in eight months amid signs of a slowdown in shipments with regional demand still weak despite the coming winter, port data quoted by Montel showed on Wednesday.
Combined stocks at the four main terminals in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp (ARA) were last assessed at 5.41 million tons, down 5% – or 0.26 million tons – from last week and the lowest since the week beginning March 20, according to Montel estimates.
A source at one of the terminals said there was a slight drop in demand from power plants, but ship arrivals have been largely stable so far this year.
But a coal analyst working for a consultancy downplayed the problem: “There is plenty of coal available – especially from Colombia and other origins – so given the low level of demand, there will be enough coal for blending.”
Potentially strengthening demand amid thin supply will push Europe into massive imports. Plus, the upcoming winter situation makes Europe have to prepare coal and other space heaters.
The increase in demand is also reflected in the increase in Australian exports. The world’s giant global exporter rose 14% (month to month/mtm) to 11.6 million tons as of October 2023.
India is the largest buyer of Australian coking coal amid surging demand. Australia’s coking coal exports to India increased by 28% on a monthly basis, reaching 3.45 million tons in October, compared to 2.69 million tons in September 2023.
The surge was triggered by surging industrial needs in India and the urgency to secure coking coal supplies, especially with dwindling stocks.
Shipments to Japan surged by a monthly 57% to 2.70 million tons in October. In addition, exports to South Korea fell 20% monthly to 1.19 million tons in October from 1.48 million tons in September.
China’s coal imports from Australia rose 5% monthly to 0.86 million tons. China also increased its purchases as rising domestic prices due to domestic production disruptions have prompted traders to seek sea-transported coal.
source : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20231109071653-128-487558/kabar-gembira-harga-batu-bara-bangkit-lagi-terbang-3